‘Very striking’ lack of voter enthusiasm reflected in governors poll

Voters have just over two months to decide who they will cast their vote for in the race for California governor, and a new poll released Wednesday reveals that two Republican candidates are the leading contenders. 

Steve Hilton, a former Fox News commentator, and Chad Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff, are slightly in the lead ahead of the eight Democrats running in the governors race, according to the latest poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies that was published Wednesday. The poll asked likely voters if they were to vote today who they would pick for governor, and among them, 17% said they’d choose Hilton. The second choice was Bianco, who received 16% of likely voter support. 

Even though registered Democrats outnumber Republicans, there is a possibility that two Republican candidates can make it to the general election, Mark DiCamillo, who conducted the survey, told SFGATE in a phone call Wednesday morning.

“If the election were today, it looks like it’s a real possibility. I’m not saying it’s 100% possibility, but it would look like about 50-50 split right now in terms of the odds of that happening,” he said.

There are three Democrats trailing behind them who have consistently been in the top 5 in recent polling. They are U.S Rep. Eric Swalwell and former Rep. Katie Porter, who both received 13% of support from likely voters, and Tom Steyer, a former presidential candidate and the only billionaire on the ticket, who received 10% of likely voter support.

“We’re 60 days out from when voters are going to be sent their ballots. I think it’s getting late, and yet voters are not really enthusiastic. They’re not that engaged,” DiCamillo said. “… It’s very striking.”

No single candidate received more than 17% of the vote, which shows that voter preference is scattered across the state.

“It’s kind of a historic … these are very big-time opportunities for the public to get, you know, a new leader, and yet nobody is really striking their fancy,” DiCamillo said.

Xavier Becerra, the former Health and Human Services secretary, received 5% of voter support. Antonio Villaraigosa, the former mayor of Los Angeles, and Matt Mahan, the current mayor of San Jose, both received 4%. Betty Yee and Tony Thurmond tied for last of named candidates in the poll with 1% of likely voter support.

Sixteen percent of voters are still undecided. DiCamillo pointed out that the number of undecided voters from their last poll in October has changed significantly. In October, half of all likely voters said they were unsure who they’d support.

He also noted that Hilton and Steyer are the only candidates with the “greatest movement in voter support” over time.

“Steyer certainly benefited from the ad campaign,” DiCamillo said about the former presidential candidate and billionaire who polled with low single-digit support in October just shortly after he announced he was running.

“We had him at 1% in our last poll, and now he’s at 10%, so he certainly made strides, and he’s in the upper tier now,” DiCamillo said of Steyer. 

In the same vein, Hilton, who started off with 6% in August and 8% of likely voter support in October, has nearly doubled his numbers. He hasn’t had as aggressive of an ad presence as Steyer, who has already spent upwards $40 million of his own money on the race. Hilton, by contrast, has raised about $5.7 million.

Porter was once leading an August Berkeley IGS poll with 17%. But voter support for her dwindled to 11% in October, and has bumped up two percentage points since. 

Her fundraising efforts are barely a fraction of Steyer’s but her name is more well known given she has served in Congress, and a previous run for Senate likely put her on the map for voters.

DiCamillo also pointed out one reality that may put some candidates at an advantage and others at a disadvantage — which is a rule by the California Secretary of State’s Office that puts restrictions on each candidate’s description. 

The office does not allow candidates to list their former job on the official ballot voters will receive in June. Instead, if a candidate is not currently serving in public office, they have to describe themselves differently, even though they may have served in higher positions. That means Porter can’t list her congressional experience on the ballot and Villaraigosa can’t describe himself as a former mayor of Los Angeles. This may leave some less-prepared voters in the dark when they arrive at their polling places.

Instead Porter has put “consumer protection advocate” and Villaraigosa has “housing affordability advocate,” which are more vague than naming their prior positions. On the other hand, Mahan, for example, can list “Mayor of San Jose” next to his name, and Swalwell can describe himself as a “U.S. Representative.” DiCamillo said Bianco “will benefit” from that rule, since voters will see his current role as Riverside County sheriff.

It’s also too late for candidates to drop out. The deadline to decide was earlier this month, and only one Democrat, Ian Calderon, a former legislator, made the call. It’s true that candidates can still withdraw from the race, but their names will remain on the ballot.

The poll was conducted online in English and Spanish among 5,019 registered voters in California, including 3,889 people who are considered likely to vote in the June primary election. Voters were surveyed between March 9 and March 5.