Welcome to Week Three of our Patience or Panic series! Here, we take a look at three struggling players and provide recommendations on how to react to their slow starts and subpar performance. This week, we’re staying on the corners of the infield.
Josh Naylor, 1B, Seattle Mariners
Ask anyone what the secret sauce of the 2025 Seattle Mariners was, and you’d get different answers: Elite pitching, Cal Raleigh’s historic campaign. Outfielder Julio Rodríguez would garner some votes. But the dyed-in-the-wool, ear-to-the-ground fan might point out someone else: First baseman Josh Naylor. Naylor was such a priority that he was one of the M’s first signings this winter, re-joining the club on a five-year, $92.5 million pact.
Now, though, if you asked what’s holding the 2026 Mariners back, there would be one consensus answer: Naylor.
Naylor’s already been visited in this column, but with a larger sample size and fewer changes, he’s due for a reappraisal. Why? Because Naylor isn’t just having a bad start. He’s not slightly below his standards. He is one of the worst hitters in MLB. No joke. He is hitting .102/.197/.102 with a .299 OPS and a -5 wRC+. -5! That figure is third-worst in all of baseball! Naylor’s .299 OPS and -0.6 fWAR trail only Marcell Ozuna. It’s, well, bad.
But what is actually going wrong? That’s a hard question to answer. His SO% is in line with his career percentages. He’s actually walking more compared to last year. His Barrel% mostly checks out. Even his batted ball data is similar, albeit with a decrease in his FB%. In other words, everything seems fine.
What isn’t is Naylor’s power. Naylor’s never been a prolific power hitter, but he’s always had some pop, with three 20+ home run seasons in his past. This year, Naylor has zero. Zilch. He doesn’t even have a double. His ISO clocks in at .000, tying him for the worst in MLB. He’s like a restaurant in a lonely town: Singles only.
Yet he shouldn’t be. Naylor’s expected slugging percentage, according to Baseball Savant, is .338. A number far closer to average. His wOBA and xwOBA also show a discrepancy, with the former a paltry .138, and the latter being .273. Both of these numbers would be even higher if Naylor raised his batting average. That is the one concern here. Naylor’s expected batting average is .225. A far cry from his current .102, yes, but also well removed from a .295 average in 2025 and his .308 average in 2023.
The Verdict: Wait this out. All data suggests Naylor is more unlucky than he is bad. It, along with his career numbers and trajectory, points to this as a blip; An aberration. Things should swing back in the other direction. If not, well, expect to see him make a third appearance in this column.
Nolan Arenado, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Going from a former Diamondback to a current Diamondback, let’s talk about Nolan Arenado.
Arenado is another player struggling. Hard. The 34-year-old is hitting .180/.192/.200 with a .392 OPS, and a 7 wRC+. It’s not great. Neither are some other numbers: A 25.0 K% to a 1.9 BB%, zero home runs, one extra-base hit.
What’s most concerning is Arenado’s power. Though never Giancarlo Stanton, Arenado hit 40 home runs at Coors, and roughly 30 while with St. Louis. He was a legitimate middle-of-the-order bat. All while still getting his singles and doubles. These last few years, singles and doubles are all Arenado has hit. His HR% has dropped year-by-year, his ISO either goes down or only slightly up, and the same goes for his Hard-Hit% and exit velocity. He has no juice, and somehow, even less than that in 2026.
Arenado isn’t barreling balls, hitting them hard, or at the sweet spot. His bat speed is mediocre. Even Arenado’s defense is less than it used to be. In the words of Bob Dylan, “Everything is Broken.”
Verdict: Run. It brings no one any delight in saying Arenado’s best days are behind him. Alas, it’s true. The hope was that a change of scenery, a sojourn in Arizona, might change that. It hasn’t. If 2026 is any indication, it won’t. Arenado’s value is in name only.
Michael Busch, 1B, Chicago Cubs
Plenty has gone wrong for the 2026 Chicago Cubs thus far: Injuries, bad luck, and a mostly inexplosive offense. There are plenty of people to blame for the latter. For now, let’s look at one culprit: First baseman Michael Busch.
Busch broke out in 2025. He hit .261/.343/.523 with an .866 OPS and a 140 wRC+. He clubbed 34 home runs, 90 RBIs, and 274 total bases. Previously acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers, he quickly became the one that got away.
Now, the Cubs couldn’t give Busch away. The expected slugger is hitting .135/.233/.173 with a .406 OPS and a 25 wRC+. He has zero home runs, just three RBIs, and two doubles account for his only extra-base hits this season. Recently, he was 0-for-his-last-30. He is a fraction of his former self.
The easy diagnosis for hitters like Busch, power bats plugged in at first base, is that they’re leaning into their own stereotype. They’re trying to be Albert Pujols, Mark McGwire, or Harmon Killebrew. They’re chasing, striking out, and wanting to walk the whole diamond at once rather than move from base to base. That’s not Busch’s issue. He’s actually striking out less than he did in 2025 despite an increased Chase%. He is not trying to play whack-a-mole.
So, what is he trying to do? The better question is what Busch is trying and failing to do. When Busch succeeded in 2024 and 2025, he did so with line drives. He carried a 20.5 LD% in 2024 and an improved 22.0 LD% in 2025. And when he made contact, he did so with authority, with average exit velocities of 89.9 and 92.2 MPH. None of this is the case anymore. Busch’s exit velocity is down from 92.2 to 86.5, a whole 5.7 MPH. His LD% is also in decline, currently at 17.1%. Conversely, Busch has seen his GB% spike from 35.8% to 43.9% this season. He isn’t putting the ball in the air.
Unlike Naylor, this isn’t just bad luck, either. His expected stats stand in the seventh percentile or lower, according to Baseball Savant. Likewise, he’s in the 33rd percentile in Barrel%, 32nd in Hard-Hit%, and 10th in LA Sweet-Spot. His whole swing is out of whack. Contrast those numbers with 2025, when Busch finished in the 95th, 76th, and 96th percentiles in those same categories.
The Verdict: Keep tabs but keep the faith. Busch is too talented and accomplished a hitter to cut. Odds are he’ll find himself. Maybe snapping his hitless streak on Sunday will be the spark.